The illustrious Cannes Film Festival has repeatedly proven to be a crucible for cinematic successes that reverberate through the awards season, culminating in the Oscars. As the 77th iteration of this storied festival concluded under the stewardship of jury president Greta Gerwig, the spotlight shone brightly on Sean Baker’s Anora, which clinched the Palme d’Or. This accolade not only represents the film’s immediate triumph but also sets the stage for its potential journey towards Oscar glory in 2025.
Cannes is more than a mere awards show; it is a barometer for the broader cinematic landscape, previewing the themes and styles that will dominate the coming year’s dialogues. This year’s winners, with their varied narratives and distinctive voices, highlight a burgeoning emphasis on inclusivity and creativity within the industry. Whether these festival favorites will convert their Cannes victories into Oscar success remains to be seen, but history suggests a promising path ahead, influenced by cultural dynamics and industry trends.
Director Sean Baker, seen posing after winning the Palme d’Or for Anora, represents the festival’s impactful legacy. Cannes’ historical trajectory has been a strong predictor of Oscar achievements, with its top prize winners having accumulated an impressive 143 Academy Award nominations and 33 wins since 1955.
Anora, distributed by Neon, stands as a major contender in this ongoing conversation. Neon has carved a niche with a remarkable sequence of Cannes victories, including Parasite (2019), Titane (2021), Triangle of Sadness (2022), and Anatomy of a Fall (2023). These wins have established a precedent that augurs well for Anora’s Oscar campaign. Notably, three of the last four Cannes victors under Neon’s banner received Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. Last year, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall garnered five Oscar nods, winning the Original Screenplay. Parasite’s historical win, both at Cannes and the Oscars, serves as a compelling antecedent. Neon’s adept handling of Cannes wins for Oscar campaigns places Anora in a strong position to secure nominations in categories like Best Picture and possibly Best Actress for Mikey Madison.
Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light, which won the Grand Prix, represents a significant milestone for Indian cinema, being the first Indian film in 30 years to compete in Cannes’ main competition and the first helmed by an Indian female director. The Grand Prix, historically, has been an indicator of Oscar potential, with previous winners gaining 35 nominations and securing ten wins.
. Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, last year’s Grand Prix winner, was an Oscar success story, securing five nominations and winning Best International Feature and Best Sound. Kapadia’s film, with its Grand Prix win, stands a strong chance in the Best International Feature Film category and might well be India’s official submission.
Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, lauded with the Jury Prize, delves into gender identity through a stellar performance by Karla Sofía Gascón. While the Jury Prize is not always a harbinger of Oscar success, it has nonetheless accrued 39 nominations and nine wins. Emilia Pérez, with its robust ensemble cast including Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, could break new ground, aligning with the Academy’s evolving focus on diversity and representation. Thus, it stands as a potential highlight in Mexico’s official submissions.
Miguel Gomes’ romantic drama Grand Tour, which earned the Best Director prize, might follow a similar trajectory. While only seven Cannes Best Director winners have translated their successes into Oscar nominations, Gomes’ compelling narrative may earn recognition alongside past winners like Alejandro González Iñárritu and Joel Coen, setting a precedent for artistic breakthroughs.
Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, winning Best Screenplay, emerges as another key contender for Oscar recognition. Recent history shows increasing acknowledgment of Cannes’ Best Screenplay winners at the Oscars, as seen with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car, which received multiple nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director, and won Best International Feature. Fargeat’s screenplay, featuring talent such as Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley, and Dennis Quaid, is well-positioned for a nomination in the Original Screenplay category.
Jesse Plemons, winner of the Best Actor award for Kinds of Kindness, is another early favorite for an Oscar nomination. Plemons, previously nominated for The Power of the Dog (2021), showcases his versatility in Yorgos Lanthimos’ film. Lanthimos’ successful track record at the Oscars further bolsters Plemons’ chances of following suit.
Lastly, Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, despite facing an uphill battle from its Special Jury Prize win to potential Oscar recognition, presents a compelling narrative. The film, made under oppressive conditions in Iran, might resonate with Academy members, recalling successes like Michael Moore’s Bowling for Columbine, which transitioned from a Cannes prize to an Oscar win.
As the curtains fall on the 77th Cannes Film Festival, the path to the Oscars 2025 seems more illuminated for these remarkable films and their creators, who now await the next chapter in their journey towards global cinematic validation.
