In the politically charged atmosphere of Bihar, the wheels of fortune have turned yet again, with seven-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar snapping a nearly three-decade bond with the BJP. The shift marks the end of an era as Kumar realigns with the ‘Mahagathbandhan’, an alliance comprising the RJD and the Congress, with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s younger son Tejashwi Yadav as his deputy.
This newest chapter in Bihar’s complex political saga possibly denotes another power play by Kumar, who is notorious for his alliance-shifting manoeuvres, akin to changing ‘all-weather allies’ with the shifting political winds. Foremost among the prickly issues that Nitish and the RJD must deal with is that of crime and corruption—a specter that led Kumar to leave the RJD in the first place back in 2017.
At that time, scandals swirled around Lalu and Tejashwi Yadav, culminating in a fissure with Nitish Kumar, who championed a “no corruption” stance. Fast forward half a decade, and Lalu Prasad is dogged by convictions in multiple fodder scam cases, while Tejashwi continues to bat off allegations of corruption, albeit insisting they stem from a politically motivated vendetta.
Despite this checkered backdrop, the RJD still emerged as the single-largest party in the 2020 Assembly polls—a testament to the possibly fading shadow of past misdeeds in the collective memory of Bihar’s populace. Yet, the BJP looms as an ever-present adversary, ready to wield these corruption charges as a weapon against the Mahagathbandhan.
Beyond the corruption conundrum, Kumar and Tejashwi confront another daunting challenge: maintaining law and order. Kumar, who has been lauded for his governance in this domain, now faces the task of continuing his record amidst a history marked by kidnappings, caste massacres, and other rampant crimes.
Trust in their governance is paramount, as failure in addressing law and order and development could prove catastrophic not just for the grand alliance, but also provide an opening for the BJP to stand its ground or even potentially gain the upper hand.
Adding to the alliance’s burdens is Tejashwi Yadav’s audacious promise of 1 million government jobs. While this pledge may have supported the RJD’s strong showing in the 2020 polls, delivering on such a grand promise is fraught with logistical and financial hurdles. Political experts broadly regard the task as insurmountable without miraculous means, and any failure to follow through could serve as a critical blow to the government’s credibility.
Nitish, acknowledged for shying away from seeking the role of Prime Minister, inadvertently finds himself poised opposite Narendra Modi, especially considering recent attempts by regional leaders to form an anti-BJP bloc have floundered.
However, for the opposition, particularly for the synergy within the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance, the litmus test lies within the state boundaries. With a diverse and sizable electoral base that combines the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav support, the JD(U)’s backing from Kurmis, MBCs, and Mahadalits, along with the Congress and CPI-ML’s influences, the alliance possesses potent potential.
To capitalize on this, they must eclipse Modi’s charismatic grip on the state while navigating internal skepticism—especially from those who recall Kumar’s frequent political about-faces with unease.
The partnership’s survival and success depend on its ability to cleanse itself of past blemishes. For Kumar, it’s a stark lesson in political calculus as his JD(U) is no longer in its heyday, having seen its number of seats dwindle. Conversely, the RJD finds itself on firmer ground.
As these political players chart their course in the volatile waters of Bihar’s electoral politics, the road ahead is filled with both high stakes and high promises. Whether they can traverse this path and emerge victorious will be the defining narrative of the region’s immediate political future.
