Cannes frequently serves as the launchpad for films that dominate the subsequent awards season. The conclusion of the 77th Cannes Film Festival, overseen by jury president Greta Gerwig, crowned Sean Baker’s “Anora” with the prestigious Palme d’Or. As the festival drew to a close, discussions naturally veered towards how these victors might fare at the 2025 Oscars.
Historically, Cannes has had a profound influence that extends beyond merely handing out awards. It sets the tone for the upcoming film year, highlighting thematic and stylistic trends that capture public imagination. This year’s winners, with their varied stories and unique perspectives, showcase a growing trend towards inclusivity and innovation in the cinematic landscape. While it remains uncertain if these films will convert their festival wins into Oscar triumphs, historical data and the current cultural climate suggest a very promising road ahead.
Sean Baker’s “Anora,” distributed by Neon, is at the forefront of this conversation. Neon’s exceptional track record at Cannes is worth noting: “Anora” follows a series of remarkable successes including “Parasite” (2019), “Titane” (2021), “Triangle of Sadness” (2022), and “Anatomy of a Fall” (2023). With “Anora’s” win, Neon has achieved an extraordinary five consecutive Palme d’Or victories.
This consistent success is likely to greatly benefit “Anora’s” Oscar campaign. Notably, three of the last four Neon-distributed Cannes winners earned Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. Last year’s “Anatomy of a Fall” was nominated in five Oscar categories, winning Original Screenplay. “Parasite,” another Neon triumph, made history by winning Best Picture at the Oscars, a first since “Marty” in 1955.
Neon’s strategic expertise in leveraging Cannes accolades for Oscar campaigns cannot be understated. With both “Anora” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Mohammad Rasoulof, the distributor positions itself strongly for another successful award season. “Anora” seems likely to secure several nominations, including Best Picture and potentially Best Actress for Mikey Madison.
A significant milestone for Indian cinema was marked by Payal Kapadia’s “All We Imagine as Light,” which won the Grand Prix. It’s the first Indian film in 30 years to be in Cannes’ main competition, and notably, the first Indian female-directed film to achieve this. Historically, the Grand Prix has been an excellent indicator of Oscar potential, with 17 winners garnering 35 nominations and securing 10 wins. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” last year’s Grand Prix winner, achieved five Oscar nominations, winning Best International Feature and Best Sound.
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Given this precedent, “All We Imagine as Light” stands a strong chance in the Best International Feature Film category. The Grand Prix victory suggests it could be India’s submission for the category, positioning it as a serious contender at the Oscars.
Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez,” which secured the Jury Prize, illuminates themes of gender identity and trans narratives, led by a standout performance from Karla Sofía Gascón. Although the Jury Prize does not always correlate with Oscar success, it has accumulated 39 nominations and nine wins over the years. The film’s strong ensemble cast, featuring Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, could attract acting nominations, resonating with the Academy’s growing focus on diversity and representation. “Emilia Pérez” might also be Mexico’s official Oscar submission next year.
Miguel Gomes received the Best Director prize for “Grand Tour,” a romantic drama. While only seven Best Director winners from Cannes have gone on to receive Oscar nominations, the scope and quality of Gomes’ storytelling may break this trend. Past winners in this category, such as Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Babel” and Joel Coen for “Fargo,” have seen significant success at the Oscars. Such precedent suggests Gomes could similarly break through.
Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance,” awarded Best Screenplay, presents another Oscar hopeful. Cannes’ Best Screenplay winners often find acclaim at the Oscars, with recent examples like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car,” earning major nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. Fargeat’s screenplay, featuring Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley, and Dennis Quaid, stands a strong chance in the Original Screenplay category.
Jesse Plemons’ Best Actor win for “Kinds of Kindness” positions him strongly for the Oscars. Historically, 16 Cannes Best Actor winners have gone on to receive Academy Award nominations. Plemons, previously nominated for “The Power of the Dog,” showcases his versatility in Yorgos Lanthimos’ film, a trait likely to catch the Academy’s attention.
Mohammad Rasoulof’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” which earned a Special Prize, faces a more challenging path to the Oscars. Films receiving special mentions at Cannes have traditionally found limited success at the Academy Awards. However, Rasoulof’s compelling personal story, marked by the struggles of filming under oppressive conditions in Iran, could resonate with Academy voters much like Michael Moore’s “Bowling for Columbine.”
Ultimately, the 77th Cannes Film Festival has set the stage for multiple films to potentially shine at the 2025 Oscars, with both historical data and contemporary trends favoring their chances in the global cinematic arena.
