Nine nations equipped with nuclear capabilities — including the US, Russia, France, China, India, and Pakistan — have actively continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals, deploying new nuclear-capable weaponry throughout 2023. This development was reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday.
According to SIPRI’s detailed analysis, China’s nuclear arsenal exhibited a significant increase, growing from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 by January 2024. This trend is anticipated to continue as part of China’s broader strategic initiatives. Additionally, the report highlights that approximately 2,100 of the world’s deployed warheads are maintained in a state of high operational alert, predominantly in the arsenals of Russia and the US. Moreover, for the first time, China is now believed to have allocated some of its warheads to this high-alert status.
The SIPRI report identified nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — as nations that have consistently enhanced their nuclear capabilities, deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable systems in the previous year. As of January 2024, the total global inventory was estimated at 12,121 warheads, with around 9,585 positioned in military stockpiles ready for potential deployment.
Out of those, an estimated 3,904 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, showcasing an increase of 60 compared to January 2023. The rest remain within central storage facilities. The report emphasized that “Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but for the first time, China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert,” reinforcing the emerging shifts in nuclear strategy.
India, Pakistan, and North Korea are actively pursuing advancements to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, emulating the capabilities already achieved by Russia, France, the UK, the US and more recently, China. This strategic move could potentially expedite the increase in deployed warheads and enhance the ability of these nations to pose threats to a substantially greater number of targets.
The SIPRI report also noted that Russia and the US control nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons worldwide.
. The size of their respective military stockpiles has remained largely stable in 2023, though it is estimated that Russia deployed approximately 36 more warheads with operational forces compared to January 2023. Transparency regarding their nuclear forces has diminished following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adding complexity to the debate over nuclear-sharing arrangements.
As for India and Pakistan, the report underscored that both nations continued to develop new varieties of nuclear delivery systems throughout 2023. India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal over the year, while Pakistan remains the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrent strategy. However, India is increasingly emphasizing the development of longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets across China.
China’s growing influence in the nuclear domain is particularly noteworthy. Depending on how China chooses to structure its nuclear forces, it could potentially rival the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities of either Russia or the US by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, China’s overall stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to remain significantly smaller than those of Russia or the US. Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), stated: “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states, there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.”
The rapid modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals worldwide underscore the ongoing challenges and the sensitive nature of global nuclear dynamics. With major powers accelerating their nuclear capabilities, the landscape continues to evolve, necessitating vigilant oversight and strategic planning to maintain stability and prevent potential conflicts. The developments throughout 2023 reaffirm the urgency of diplomatic dialogues and non-proliferation efforts to mitigate the risks associated with an intensified nuclear arms race.
