The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has experienced a significant upsurge in militant activities, particularly in the Jammu region, marking a new phase of violence. Between June 9 and June 12, militants executed four attacks in the Jammu region, with three of these incidents occurring within a mere 24 hours. An additional attack on June 17 in Bandipora, situated in the Kashmir region, has further heightened concerns.
The onset of this violent streak was marked on June 9 in the Reasi district when militants targeted a bus transporting Hindu pilgrims to the Vaishno Devi shrine. The shooting resulted in the driver losing control of the vehicle, causing it to veer off the road and plunge into a ditch, resulting in nine fatalities and 33 injuries. Notably, the Reasi assault took place around 6:15 pm, less than an hour before Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for his third consecutive term in New Delhi.
The violence continued with a trio of attacks on June 11-12. One notable incident occurred in a village in Kathua, near the Indo-Pak border, where a confrontation with militants led to the death of a CRPF officer and the neutralization of two militants. Concurrently, two separate attacks at checkpoints in Gandoh and Chattergala in Doda district injured seven security personnel. These attacks, particularly the one in Reasi, have intensively worried India’s security framework.
Following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which revoked the special status of J&K, the Modi government increased its efforts to clamp down on militancy and separatist activities in the Kashmir Valley. This intense crackdown has compelled insurgents to re-strategize by moving their operations to the comparatively less hostile Jammu region. Historical data suggests that Jammu had been largely free from militant activities for approximately 15 years, but this began to change from 2021 onward.
The earliest indication of this tactical shift appeared in February 2021, when J&K police confiscated 15 sticky bombs, also known as magnetic IEDs, in Samba district near the international border. The threat escalated in June 2021 when low-flying drones delivered IEDs to the Jammu Air Force station, marking a new modus operandi for militants in India.
Since early 2021, the Jammu region has witnessed 29 terrorism-related incidents, according to official statistics. A worrying trend is the rising number of civilian casualties. While 12 civilians were killed throughout 2023, the number had already reached 17 casualties in the first half of that year alone, indicating a disturbing increase.
.
A report in The Indian Express from June 2023 noted that although the Kashmir Valley experiences a higher number of terrorist incidents and civilian casualties, the attacks in Jammu tend to be “high-impact incidents,” causing significant damage and raising the potential for communal unrest. Jammu’s demography, comprising 62.5% Hindus and a significant Muslim population, adds a layer of complexity and volatility with potential jarring impacts on communal harmony.
Comparatively, the Kashmir Valley is predominantly Muslim (96.4%), and shifts in militant tactics towards attacking Hindu-majority areas in Jammu are seen as deliberate moves to provoke communal violence. Historical attacks, such as the 1993 Kishtwar incident, where 17 Hindus were singled out and killed from a civilian bus, and the 1998 mass beheadings in Prankote and Dakikote villages, underscore the potency of communal violence as a strategic tool for militants.
Hindu temples have also been significant targets. Notably, the Raghunath Temple in Jammu city suffered two suicide bombings in 2002, resulting in over 26 casualties. More recently, in May 2022, a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims near Katra in Reasi caught fire, initially deemed an accident but later discovered to be the result of a sticky bomb placed by militants.
The recent attack on a bus of Hindu pilgrims in Reasi has rung alarm bells. The incident not only signifies an expansion of militant activities within the Jammu region but also raises the risk of igniting communal tensions. The timing is particularly concerning as it precedes the annual Amarnath Yatra, from June 29 to August 19, an event that sees hundreds of thousands of Hindus traversing the difficult terrain to a cave temple in the Himalayas. Ensuring the security of this pilgrimage is an already Herculean task, made more critical by the emergent militant threat.
Additionally, upcoming elections in J&K add another layer of urgency. The Assembly elections, expected to be held before September 30, 2024, will be instrumental in restoring normalcy in the region, marking the first since J&K’s reorganization into a Union Territory. However, an increase in militant activities could serve as a pretext for further delaying these elections, a potential move that critics argue might benefit the incumbent Modi government amid a challenging political landscape.
Implicit in the increased violence is a warning for cautious vigilance. The intensification of militant activities in Jammu reflects not just a tactical shift but also underscores the evolving nature of insurgency challenges within India’s security dynamics.
