Most exit polls released on Saturday forecast a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to these projections, the NDA may secure over 350 of the 543 seats, with some polls suggesting that the alliance might even achieve an unprecedented milestone by capturing up to 400 seats. If these predictions hold true, the NDA is set to improve on its already impressive 2019 tally when it won 352 seats.
Two key polls further predicted that the BJP alone would enhance its numbers from the 303 seats it clinched in the 2019 elections. This anticipated uptick reflects a continued upward trajectory for the party since its 2014 victory. Meanwhile, the exit polls also provided varied estimates for the INDIA bloc, a coalition of parties opposing the BJP, expecting it to outperform the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) from 2019.
Should these projections translate into reality on June 4 during the vote count, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will achieve a historical feat by winning a third consecutive term, a distinction only matched by Jawaharlal Nehru.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted that the NDA would secure between 361 to 401 seats in the Lok Sabha, while the INDIA bloc would likely win between 131 to 166 seats, and other parties between 8 to 20 seats. Similarly, the Republic PMarq exit poll suggested 359 seats for the NDA, 154 for the INDIA bloc, and 30 for others. In another projection, the Republic Matrize poll estimated 353 to 368 seats for the NDA, 118 to 113 for the INDIA bloc, and 43 to 48 for other parties.
NewsX Dynamics also showed strong numbers for NDA, projecting 371 seats for them, while the INDIA bloc and others could capture 125 and 47 seats respectively. The same survey suggested that Congress may slightly improve its previous tally of 52 seats to around 60 seats, while BJP significantly boosts its count from 303 to 315 seats.
Breaking down the forecast further, the NewsX Dynamics poll offered specific predictions: Congress 60 seats, DMK 22, Trinamool Congress 19, TDP 13, JD(U) 11, Shiv Sena (UBT) five, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) five, Shiv Sena eight, BJD eight, YSRCP seven, NCP four, Samajwadi Party 10, Rashtriya Janata Dal five, National Conference three, AAP three, AIADMK five, BRS two, and JD(S) two. It also anticipated four seats for the ruling Left Democratic Front in Kerala, with other parties securing 32 seats.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll on NDTV forecasted 377 seats for the NDA, 151 for INDIA, and 15 for others. India TV’s poll aligned with others, predicting 371 to 401 seats for the NDA, 109 to 139 for INDIA, and 28 to 38 for other entities. News18’s mega exit poll mirrored these trends, expecting the NDA to clinch 355 to 370 seats, the INDIA coalition 125 to 140 seats, and others taking 42 to 52 seats. The BJP, by itself, could win between 305 to 315 seats according to these projections.
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The News24-Today’s Chanakya poll was particularly optimistic, estimating the NDA would net around 400 seats (plus or minus 15), INDIA bloc securing 107 seats (plus or minus 11), and others with 36 seats (plus or minus nine). The Times Now-ETG exit poll also favored the NDA with 358 seats, the INDIA bloc with 152, and others with 33.
Regionally, projections were equally telling. According to India Today-Axis My India, the NDA is likely to sweep Uttar Pradesh by winning between 67 to 72 seats, leaving the INDIA Alliance with 8 to 12. BJP alone could seize 64 to 67 seats, while Samajwadi Party and Congress might garner 7 to 9 and 1 to 3 seats respectively.
In West Bengal, BJP is predicted to win 26 to 31 seats and secure 11 to 12 of the 17 seats in Telangana. The ruling Congress in Telangana might obtain 4 to 6 constituencies. In Modi’s home state of Gujarat, exit polls uniformly suggested a clean sweep for BJP, retaining its hold on all 26 seats.
Tamil Nadu might see the NDA win between 1 to 4 seats with a 22% vote share, whereas the INDIA bloc could claim between 33 to 39 seats with a 46% vote share. In Kerala, BJP might open its account with 2 to 3 seats, the Congress-led UDF could win 17 to 18, and the CPI(M)-led LDF may secure 0 to 1.
Telangana could witness a tight race with the BJP-led NDA poised to win 7 to 10 seats, the INDIA bloc 5 to 8, BRS 2 to 5, and others 0 to 1. The BJP and Congress are expected to improve their standings in Karnataka as well, while NDA might capture a significant share in Maharashtra despite previous political turmoil.
Andhra Pradesh exit polls favored the NDA decisively, predicting it could win 19 to 25 seats, pushing the YSR Congress Party to 0 to 8, and the INDIA bloc potentially failing to secure any seats.
A favorable showing for the BJP-led NDA is forecasted across Haryana, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Assam, with Punjab’s seats likely to be split among various contestants. Bihar is projected to heavily support the NDA, granting it approximately 30 out of 40 seats.
With the final votes set to be counted on June 4, the likelihood of an overwhelming victory for the NDA appears strong, potentially granting Prime Minister Narendra Modi an unprecedented third term and further solidifying BJP’s dominance in Indian politics. The exit polls have set the stage for what could be a landmark election outcome, reflecting broad trends of public support across diverse states and regions.
